Tsai had good reason for wanting this trip to go well. In 2012 senior Obama National Security Council（NSC）staffer Evan Medeiros sabotaged her election chances by questioning her vision for relations with China in the Financial Times. While debatable whether Medeiros cost Tsai the election, it was certainly a major blow to her campaign.
Now by all press reports and from multiple think tank and Congressional sources I have spoken with, it is obvious Tsai did well in DC this past June. Yet doing well and changing minds are two different things. What Tsai most likely accomplished at the time was avoiding the Obama NSC staff picking straws on who would stab her in the 2016 election cycle.
That result was probably good enough when her opponent was going to be the extremely pro-China KMT stalwart Hung Hsui Chu. It got even better for Tsai visa-via the US when James Soong entered and diluted Hung’s vote. Shortly after Soong entered the race I spoke with one pro-DPP US Congressional staffer who thought Tsai was not only a shoe-in as President, but would by default, find Washington less likely to press her on cross strait policies. After all, looking at Hung and Soong, what was the alternative？
That alternative has now shown up with New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu giving Hung the boot and becoming the KMT’s standard bearer in the Presidential race.
At present few see any chance of Chu defeating Tsai, although if any party has the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it is the DPP. Yet, what Chu can do is significantly alter the relationship of Tsai with the US. The coronation of a woman as President in Taiwan, as appealing at that is, remains secondary to the quiet and uneventful cross straits relations the United States values.
No doubt China is praying, if they do that sort of thing, for a Chu upset, but it is to the US, which has become a proxy for China in keeping cross strait relations “cool” where Chu will offer an alternative, and a challenge to Tsai.
A new premise has emerged with Chu, one that if Chu is close in the polls, Tsai and the DPP might again get blindsided by an Obama administration that simply doesn’t have time for DPP games on cross straits.
This premise was confirmed three times this past weekend as a current congressional staffer, a Washington think tank analyst, and a former Pentagon senior official, called for an update and betting handicap on Chu’s chances. In near lock step all were under the impression Tsai was still not the preferred Washington candidate.
Even if, as expected, Chu loses the election, it is a hard case to make that he will be significantly damaged. No one expects Chu to win, and by running he becomes the automatic KMT candidate next time around. More importantly, he is a legitimate democratically selected opposition leader.
The US would not get involved in an inter-KMT scrum, but with a clear KMT leader the US now has a politician to reward. The US meets with opposition leaders from all over the world, and Chu visiting the White House places a powerful check on any of Tsai’s ambitions to change the direction or tone of cross straits relations.
Tsai and the DPP are mistaken if they think keeping the US “concerned” about what she may do on cross straits is an option for this election, for her governing, and for the security of US-Taiwan relations. The DPP can protect pork farmers, and the price there is no entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. But antagonizing China is off the table. As a member of a Congressional delegation visiting Hong Kong told me not so recently, thanks to Chen and now Ma Taiwan has very few friends left in DC, and even he wouldn’t go to bat for Taiwan if they rock the boat with China.
Ramping up independence rhetoric or a minor amount of China bashing is a long established formula for the DPP when political races get tight. Tsai may do nothing, but she can’t control all her proxies, nor can the Chinese control theirs. The KMT will also stir things up. What is more of a wild card is that unlike in the past where China often ignored Taiwan electoral squabbles this time Chinese President Xi may not.
China will not have to do much to get an Obama foreign policy team, never friends of Taiwan in the first place, to pressure Taiwan to keep a lid on things. In an election year, that may once again be an interview questioning the ability of Tsai and the DPP to keep cross straits peaceful.
While Tsai remains a 3-2 odds on bet to win the election, with Chu in, and now a much closer race, along with China being vocal about its outlook with Tsai in office, the odds that the US will interfere in favor of Chu just went from 1 in 5 to 50-50.
Mark Simon（msimon@nma.com.tw）
Commercial Director NMA and Columnist Next Magazine Hong Kong
